国内大循环背景下国内旅游发展的时空格局演化与影响因素——以江苏省县域尺度为例

国内旅游是释放内需潜力、促进消费升级、畅通国民经济循环的重要载体。加强国内旅游时空格局演化研究,对促进区域旅游协调发展,助推国内大循环格局的构建具有重要意义。以江苏省为例,分析县域尺度国内旅游发展的时空分异和影响因素,得出主要结论：总体格局呈现出以南京市区、苏州市区为核心的空间结构,并存在空间自相关性;两阶段增长率较快的县域主要存在于苏北地区,具有一定的后发优势;江苏省县域单元国内旅游人数保持着稳定的冷热点格局,热点区域主要聚集在苏南地区,冷点区域则主要存在于苏北地区,南北方向的空间差异最为明显;GDP是江苏省国内旅游发展的决定性影响因素,而公路里程影响较小,人口数、A级景点影响显著性在不断提高。

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of tourism development under the background of domestic major cycle: A case study of Jiangsu province at county scale

Domestic tourism is an important carrier to release the potential of domestic demand, promote consumption upgrading and smooth the domestic major cycle. Strengthening the research on the evolution of spatial and temporal pattern of domestic tourism is of great significance to promote the coordinated and balanced development of regional tourism and boost the formation of the development pattern of domestic major circular economy. This paper selects the domestic tourism data of Jiangsu province in 2011, 2015 and 2019 at the county scale, and analyzes the spatial and temporal differentiation of domestic tourism development at the county level in the province. Based on the spatial distribution and growth, we discuss the spatial autocorrelation and spatial agglomeration of county-level domestic tourism development in Jiangsu. The spatial variogram and its fractal dimension analysis are used to analyze the spatial variation mechanism. Through the analysis, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) In the overall pattern, there are obvious spatial differences in the number of domestic tourists at the county scale, with Nanjing and Suzhou as the core; there is obvious spatial autocorrelation in the number of domestic tourists in each county. However, the autocorrelation has a tendency to weaken over time. (2) The counties with accelerated growth rate in the two stages mainly exist in the northern part of Jiangsu province. Although the foundation is weak in the northern part of Jiangsu, its tourism development is obviously faster than that in Southern Jiangsu, and it has certain late-coming advantages. (3) The number of domestic tourists in the county units has maintained a stable cold and hot spot pattern. The hotspots are mainly concentrated in the southern part of Jiangsu, and Northern Jiangsu is mostly coldspots of tourism development. (4) The continuity of domestic tourism development pattern and spatial self-organization are increasing, the randomness in spatial differentiation is decreasing, and the spatial difference between Northern and Southern Jiangsu is the most obvious. (5) In terms of influencing factors, GDP has always been a decisive factor in the growth of regional tourism in the province, while the increase of highway mileage with convenient transportation and well-developed road network has little impact on the number of tourists. The impacts of population and A-level scenic spots on the number of tourists has been increasing significantly, which are negatively and positively correlated with the growth of tourist number, respectively.