中国海洋经济发展质量研究

海洋作为重要的战略要地,推动其高质量发展对于海洋强国建设意义重大。基于2006—2017年沿海11省（市、自治区）数据,采用集对分析、核密度估计模型、标准差椭圆以及GMM模型对中国海洋经济发展质量进行测度,并对其时空演化特征及影响因素进行分析。结果表明：（1）总体来看,时间上,2006—2017年海洋经济发展质量呈上升趋势;空间上,分为高、中、低三类不同发展水平;全国海洋经济发展呈东北—西南格局,且重心一直位于长三角地区;三大海洋经济圈发展质量地区差异显著,整体呈北部、东部、南部三级格局分布。（2）分维度来看,时间上,样本期间内各个维度都取得不同程度的提升,均为海洋经济高质量发展不可或缺的部分;空间上,五个维度均呈向好发展趋势,各维度高、中、低水平的省（市、自治区）各不相同,差异显著。（3）影响因素上,海洋区位优势、城镇化水平、市场化水平、产业结构水平、陆域经济水平对高质量背景下海洋经济发展质量产生正向促进作用,而海洋资源利用度、环境规制强度对海洋经济发展质量产生负向抑制作用,各影响因素在不同的海洋经济圈中作用效果不同。

Research on the development quality of China's marine economy

As an important strategic place, the ocean is of great significance to the development of a strong marine nation. Based on the data of 11 coastal provincial-level regions of China from 2006 to 2017, this paper uses set pair analysis, kernel density estimation model, standard deviation ellipse and GMM model to measure the quality of China's marine economic development under the background of high-quality growth, and its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors. The results show that: (1) Generally speaking, the quality of marine economic development from 2006 to 2017 showed an upward trend. In terms of space, there are three development levels: high, medium, and low; the national marine economic development presented a northeast-southwest pattern, and the center of gravity had always been located in the Yangtze River Delta region; regional differences in the quality of marine economic development were significant, consistent with the three major marine economic circles of the country, and the overall distribution is in a three-level pattern of north, east, and south. (2) All dimensions have achieved improvement of different degrees during the sample period, which are all indispensable parts of the high-quality development of the marine economy; the five dimensions are all showing a positive development trend. Provincial-level regions had different levels of dimensionality (high, medium and low), with significant differences. (3) Influencing factors, namely, marine location advantage, urbanization level, marketization level, industrial structure level, and land economic level had a positive effect on the marine economic development quality under a high-quality background. The utilization of marine resources and the intensity of environmental regulations have had a positive effect on the development of marine economy. The marine economic development quality had a negative inhibitory effect, and different influencing factors generated different effects in each marine economic circle of China.