土地利用变化对区域水—能源—粮食系统耦合协调度的影响——以京津冀城市群为研究对象

将土地因素引入水—能源—粮食系统,运用耦合协调模型对京津冀城市群2005— 2018年水—能源—粮食—土地系统的时空变化特征进行研究。结果表明：（1）从空间尺度上来看,京津冀城市群建设用地由中心向四周扩散;从京津冀城市群土地利用格局来看,耕地和建设用地面积分别呈现较为明显的下降和增长趋势。（2）将土地纳入水—能源—粮食系统降低了京津冀城市群大多数城市水—能源—粮食系统间的耦合度和耦合协调度。（3）土地与水—能源—粮食子系统组成的两要素系统的协调水平会进行叠加或抵消进而影响水—能源—粮食—土地系统耦合协调度。本文的研究启示在于：京津冀城市群在考虑水、能源、粮食协调发展的同时,应考虑土地对水—能源—粮食系统整体及内部子系统的影响,根据城市自身资源优势合理配置资源、优化产业布局以实现可持续发展。

Impact of land use change on coupling coordination degree of regional water-energy-food system: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

In this paper, the land factor is introduced into the water-energy-food system, and the coupling coordination model is used to study the spatio-temporal change characteristics of the water-energy-food-land system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration from 2004 to 2017. The results show that: (1) On the spatial scale, the construction land of the study area diffuses from the center to the periphery. In terms of land use pattern of the urban agglomeration, the area of cultivated land and construction land showed a relatively obvious decline and growth trend, respectively. (2) The integration of land into the water-energy-food system reduces the coupling degree and co-scheduling of water-energy-food systems in most cities of this urban agglomeration. (3) The coordination level of land and water-energy-food subsystem will be superimposed or offset, which will affect the coupling coordination of water-energy-food-land system. The research enlightenment of this paper is that considering the coordinated development of water, energy and grain, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration should understand the impact of land on the whole and internal subsystems of the water-energy-food system, allocate resources reasonably and optimize the industrial layout according to the city's own resource advantages, so as to achieve sustainable development.