中国光伏发电的时空分布、竞争格局及减排效益

随着中国碳达峰、碳中和目标的提出,光伏发电逐渐成为推动低碳转型的重要途径。通过开展中国光伏发电的时空分布、竞争格局及减排效益研究,本文力求为中国“双碳”目标的落实、光伏产业的可持续发展提供量化支撑及政策建议,得出主要结论如下：（1）2012—2020年,光伏装机总量从624.8万kW增长到25317.0万kW,以集中式电站为主导;（2）山东、江苏、安徽、河南、山西等地区呈现高—高自相关特征,贵州等地区呈现高—低自相关特征;（3）电力消费量、碳排放量、科研投入为装机量增加的正向驱动因素,科技投入对相邻省份的装机量增加同样具有正向驱动效应;（4）中国现有光伏装机的年均减排效益约为2.0亿t,到2030年累计可以达到19.2亿t,对碳达峰、碳中和目标的落实具有重要推动作用。

Spatio-temporal distribution,competitive development and emission reduction of China's photovoltaic power generation

Since China's carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals were put forward, photovoltaic power generation has gradually become one of the important fields to accelerate low carbon transition. Through the analysis of spatio-temporal distribution, competitive development and emission reduction of China's photovoltaic power generation, the main conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) From 2012 to 2020, the total installed photovoltaic capacities increased from 6.25 million kW to 253.17 million kW, dominated by centralized power stations. (2) Regions including Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, and Shanxi showed a high-high autocorrelation, while regions such as Guizhou showed a high-low autocorrelation. (3) Electricity consumption, carbon emissions, and R&D investment were the positive driving factors for the growth of photovoltaic installed capacities, and R&D investment had a positive impact on the growth of photovoltaic installed capacities in neighboring provinces. (4) The potential emission reduction benefits per year of China's existing photovoltaic installations could almost reach 2.0E+08 tons and the accumulated emission reduction benefits could reach 19.2E+08 tons by 2030, revealing significant emission reduction potentials for promoting the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.