基于草地畜牧业生产的三江源地区承载力多情景模拟分析

三江源地区是我国生态安全的重要屏障,同时也是我国最主要的畜牧业生产基地之一,在保证草地资源可持续利用前提下,探究合理的人口容量对该区的生态保护建设和可持续发展具有重要意义。通过模型模拟草地理论载畜量以估算畜牧业产值,设定三种居民生活水平情景,模拟不同情景不同时期下的适度人口容量,分析人口承载力的空间差异性。结果表明：“十五”期间,三种情景下全区人口承载力呈富余状态;“十一五”和“十二五”期间在当前居民和小康水平情景的人口容量尚有结余;到“十三五”期间,三种情景下人口承载力总体均超载,但空间分布不同,在当前居民、小康和富裕生活水平情景下,分别有11个、8个和2个县的人口容量尚有结余,人口承载力超载地区主要分布于三江源地区东部。应根据现有资源分布和符合主体功能要求的方向进行调整和优化人口结构,将对该地区可持续发展战略具有重要意义。

Multi-scenario simulations of carrying capacity of the Three River Headwaters Region based on animal husbandry production

The Three River Headwaters Region is an important barrier for ecological security and one of the most important animal husbandry production bases in China. Under the premise of ensuring sustainable utilization of grassland resources, exploring optimal population capacity is of great significance to the ecological protection construction and sustainable development of this region. In this study, we simulated the theoretical animal carrying capacity of grassland, and then estimated the production value of animal husbandry. We evaluated the optimal population capacity in different periods and spatial differences in population capacity under three scenarios of residents' living standards. The results show that the population capacity of this region was in a surplus state under the three scenarios during the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period (2001-2005); the population capacity under the current situation and well-off level was still in balance during the "Eleventh Five-Year" (2006-2010) and "Twelfth Five-Year" periods (2011-2015); by the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period (2016-2020), the population capacity of the three scenarios relying only on the production value of animal husbandry was generally overloaded, but there were differences in spatial distribution. The areas with overloaded capacity are mainly distributed in the east of the study region. Under the current situation, well-off, and prosperous living standards scenarios, there are 11 counties, 8 counties, and 2 counties with surplus population capacity, respectively. The regional population structure is adjusted and optimized in accordance with the existing resource distribution and the direction that meets the main functional requirements, which is of great significance to the sustainable development strategy of the region.