多情景视角下京津冀碳排放达峰预测与减排潜力

京津冀地区是中国核心经济区的重要组成部分,也是碳排放重点区域,其碳排放早日达峰对实现国家达峰目标尤为关键。通过分析碳排放及影响因素的关系,构建碳排放系统动力学模型,并设置六种情景方案,模拟预测其对北京、天津和河北碳达峰时间、峰值及减排潜力的影响。结果显示：（1）基准情景下,北京已经实现碳达峰,天津预计2023年碳达峰,而河北则难在2035年前达峰。（2）协调发展情景即综合调控政策,较单一措施情景,各地区碳减排效果最优;其中,北京2020—2030年碳排放较基准情景下降13.52%,天津碳达峰可提前至2021年,河北则可在2030年达到峰值。（3）单一措施情景下,环保情景对北京碳减排作用最显著,而节能减排情景则是实现天津与河北碳达峰的最佳发展模式。

Carbon emission peak prediction and reduction potential in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from the perspective of multiple scenarios

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) is not only one of core economic regions of China, but also the key area of energy consumption and air pollution of the country. The carbon emissions of this region account for about 1/5 of the country's total. The proposal of China's "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" target has aroused widespread concern from the domestic and international community. Therefore, exploring the carbon emission trend and reduction potential of the BTH region under different scenarios is of great significance for China to achieve the carbon peak goal by 2030 on schedule. By analyzing the relationship between carbon emission and its influencing factors, this paper constructs a dynamic model of carbon emission system in the study region. On this basis, six scenarios are set up from the perspective of industrial structure, energy intensity, energy structure, environmental regulation, science and technology investment, and comprehensive regulation to predict the impact of different schemes on the peak time and peak value and reduction potential of carbon emissions in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei respectively. The results show that under the baseline scenario, according to the existing system behavior law, Beijing has reached its carbon peak, Tianjin is expected to reach its carbon peak in 2023, and Hebei is unlikely to reach its carbon peak before 2035. In the coordinated development scenario, that is, the comprehensive regulation policy, compared with the single measure scenario, the effect of carbon emission reduction in each region is the best. Among them, the carbon emissions of Beijing from 2020 to 2030 will decrease by 13.52% on average compared with the baseline scenario. The carbon peak time of Tianjin can be advanced to 2021, and the carbon emissions of Hebei can reach the peak in 2030. Under the single measure scenario, the environmental protection scenario has the most significant effect on carbon emission reduction in Beijing, while the energy conservation and emission reduction scenario is the best development model to achieve the carbon emission peak in Tianjin and Hebei. Meanwhile, considering the differences in the peaks of carbon emissions in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, China should formulate differentiated carbon peaking strategy and emission reduction path.