Predicting long-term development of abandoned subalpine conifer forests in the Swiss National Park |
| |
| Authors: | Anita C. Risch Martin Schütz Harald Bugmann |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Community Ecology, Zuercherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;2. Laboratory for Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 206 West Stadium, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA;1. Landscape Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;2. Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland;3. Forest Ecology, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology ETH, Universitätstrasse 22, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland;1. Department of Biogeography, University of Bayreuth, D 95447 Bayreuth, Germany;2. Department of Forestry and Environmental Science, Shahjalal University of Science and Technology, Sylhet 3114, Bangladesh;3. Department of Disturbance Ecology, University of Bayreuth, D 95447 Bayreuth, Germany;4. School of Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane QLD 4072, Australia;5. Centre for Research on Land-use Sustainability, Maijdi, Noakhali 3800, Bangladesh;1. Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10617, Taiwan;2. School of Forestry and Resource Conservation, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Road, Taipei 10617, Taiwan;3. UFZ – Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Department of Conservation Biology, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany;4. Université de Toulouse, UPS, INPT, EcoLab (Laboratoire Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Environnement), 118 route de Narbonne, 31062 Toulouse, France;5. CNRS, EcoLab, 31062 Toulouse, France;1. EMBRAPA-CNPASA, Palmas, TO 77015-012, Brazil;2. Dept. de Zootecnia, ESALQ, Univ. of São Paulo, Piracicaba, SP 13418-900, Brazil;3. Agronomy Dept., University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0500, USA |
| |
| Abstract: | In the past 35 years, various kinds of dynamic models have been used to study vegetation development during primary or secondary succession. Typically, one specific model or models with the same conceptual background were employed. It remains largely unknown to what extent such model-based findings, e.g., on the speed of succession, depend on the specific model approach.To address this issue, we estimated the time elapsing during secondary succession in subalpine conifer forests of the Swiss National Park using three models of different conceptual background: (i) a forest gap model, (ii) a Markov chain model, and (iii) a minimum spanning tree model.Starting from a 95- to 125-year-old mountain pine (Pinus montana Miller) forest, all three models predicted a similar successional development. Even though the forest gap model and the Markov chain model are based on totally different approaches and were calibrated using different data sets, they both forecasted that it would take 500–550 years to reach a late-successional forest stage. The minimum spanning tree model, which only reveals a certain number of time steps yielding a minimum time estimate, showed a development of tree density (stems/ha) that was similar to the results of the forest gap model, but a strict quantitative comparison is not feasible.Our study shows that modeling forest development using three different approaches is quite powerful to obtain a robust estimate of the speed of forest succession. In our case, this estimate is higher than what has been suggested in previous studies that investigated secondary forest succession. The use of several approaches allows for a more comprehensive analysis in terms of variables covered (e.g., relative forest cover in the Markov approach vs. stand-scale species composition in the forest gap model). We recommend that in studies focusing on the speed of succession, several models should be employed simultaneously to identify inconsistencies in our knowledge and to increase confidence in the results. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
