区域性煤矿百万吨死亡率指标的宏观预测研究

为了对煤矿安全状况进行宏观预测,提出区域性煤矿安全状况评价指标体系并建立了以煤矿百万吨死亡率指标标征区域性煤矿安全状况的灰色预测模型。在对煤矿综合机械化采煤率、大型煤矿产量比例、原煤全员效率指标预测分析的基础上,利用多元回归法综合预测煤矿百万吨死亡率指标。实例计算证明:建立的预测模型具有输入数据少、建模简单、计算快捷等优点;客观地反映出区域性的煤矿安全状况;该模型可进行煤矿安全的短期预测,并为制定煤矿安全控制指标提供理论依据。

Study on the Macro Prediction of Death Rate per Million-ton Coal in Regional Coal Mines

For making a macro-prediction of coal safety,an assessment index system for regional coalmine safety is constructed and a gray prediction model with DRPMT(death rate per million ton coal)as the indicator of regional coalmine safety is set up.Based on the prediction and analysis of comprehensive mechanized mining rate,yield proportion of large coalmines and full efficiency of raw coal,the DRPMT is predicted by using multiple regression method.The applied example indicates that this prediction model can objectively reflect the actual safety situation of regional coalmines and is characterized by less input data,simple modeling and quick calculation.