广州社区居民通勤碳排放特征及其影响机理

通勤行为作为城市居民交通出行的主要组成部分,通勤碳排放的有效控制成为低碳交通发展的重点。以广州4个典型社区为例,构建结构方程模型,基于居民日常通勤行为的微观角度测算社区居民通勤碳排放,深入分析社区居民通勤碳排放的影响机理。结果表明：小汽车通勤成为居民高碳通勤的最主要因素;通勤距离和方式是决定社区居民通勤碳排放的两个直接影响因素;相对于个体社会经济属性和居民态度偏好来说,居住空间环境变量对于居民通勤碳排放的影响更为显著;居民态度偏好对于居民未来的通勤方式将起一定的作用,在公共交通通勤群体对小汽车通勤的强烈欲望以及小汽车通勤群体对小汽车通勤的行为依赖双重因素的推动下,若技术、政策和空间环境保持不变,随着经济社会的发展,未来通勤高碳化趋势明显。

Characteristics and Mechanism of CO2 Emissions from Urban Commuting in Guangzhou

Global warming is an indisputable phenomenon, so it is imperative to seek a low-carbon development path to achieve sustainable development. In addition, commuter behavior is a major component of transportation for urban residents, through which the effective control of carbon emissions is a top priority in the development of low-carbon transport system. By viewing of this, basing on the microscopic study of behaviorism perspective, SEM is built to analyze the influence mechanism of commuting carbon emissions. The following main conclusions are drawn from this study. The car has become the most important way of high-carbon commuting. Commuting distance and commuting mode have direct influence in community residents. The impact factors of living space environment have more effect on residents＇ commuting carbon emissions than other factors. The future commuting style of residents will be affected by their attitude preferences to a certain extent. Driven by the dual factors of both the strong desire of car commuting among the public transport commuter groups and the dependent behavior of the car commuter among the car commuter groups, the tendency of high carbonation commuter will become more apparent in the future, unless that the technology, policy, and space environment will be developed with the economic and social progress.