低碳交通电动汽车碳减排潜力及其影响因素分析

交通运输是城市能源消耗和碳排放的重点行业,为通过节能减排实现低碳城市发展目标,传统汽油车向新能源汽车的转型是一项重要的举措,其中电动汽车因其节能减排的优势将在这次转型中发挥重要作用.在全面总结现有电动汽车节能减排研究成果的基础上,分析了影响电动汽车的减排因素,并应用燃料生命周期的理论,结合北京市的电动汽车推广计划,以纯电动汽车为例,采用改进的燃料碳排放模型,并设置6种情景分析了电动汽车的碳排放及其减排潜力,包括发电能源结构、车用燃料类型(单位燃料的CO2排放系数)、汽车类型(百公里能耗)、城市交通状况(时速)、煤电发电技术、电池类型(重量、能效)等因素对电动汽车减排潜力的影响.结果表明,改进后的模型能更科学测算燃料消耗碳排放;纯电动汽车具有明显的制约性碳减排潜力,在分析的6种影响因素中其波动幅度为57%～81.2%,其中,发电能源结构和煤电技术供电路线对电动汽车燃料生命周期碳减排空间起决定性作用,其减排空间分别可达78.1%及81.2%.最后从改善能源结构、提高煤电技术、推广节能技术、加快动力蓄电池研发、推广纯电动汽车等方面提出了推广电动汽车降低交通能耗和碳排放的优化措施,以期为低碳交通新能源汽车转型政策的制定提供科学依据和方法支撑.

Research on Carbon Reduction Potential of Electric Vehicles for Low-Carbon Transportation and Its Influencing Factors

Transportation is the key industry of urban energy consumption and carbon emissions. The transformation of conventional gasoline vehicles to new energy vehicles is an important initiative to realize the goal of developing low-carbon city through energy saving and emissions reduction, while electric vehicles (EV) will play an important role in this transition due to their advantage in energy saving and lower carbon emissions. After reviewing the existing researches on energy saving and emissions reduction of electric vehicles, this paper analyzed the factors affecting carbon emissions reduction. Combining with electric vehicles promotion program in Beijing, the paper analyzed carbon emissions and reduction potential of electric vehicles in six scenarios using the optimized energy consumption related carbon emissions model from the perspective of fuel life cycle. The scenarios included power energy structure, fuel type (energy consumption per 100 km), car type (CO₂ emission factor of fuel), urban traffic conditions (speed), coal-power technologies and battery type (weight, energy efficiency). The results showed that the optimized model was able to estimate carbon emissions caused by fuel consumption more reasonably; electric vehicles had an obvious restrictive carbon reduction potential with the fluctuation of 57%-81.2% in the analysis of six influencing factors, while power energy structure and coal-power technologies play decisive roles in life-cycle carbon emissions of electric vehicles with the reduction potential of 78.1% and 81.2%, respectively. Finally, some optimized measures were proposed to reduce transport energy consumption and carbon emissions during electric vehicles promotion including improving energy structure and coal technology, popularizing energy saving technologies and electric vehicles, accelerating the battery R&D and so on. The research provides scientific basis and methods for the policy development for the transition of new energy vehicles in low-carbon transport.