2013~2019年臭氧污染导致的江苏稻麦产量损失评估

基于2013~2019年江苏省115个监测站点的逐时臭氧观测数据和97个县级行政区的农作物年产量，利用AOT40的暴露响应关系，结合空间分析等方法，评估了臭氧污染导致的冬小麦和水稻两种农作物的产量损失.结果表明，2013~2019年，冬小麦和水稻的AOT40分别为（2.76~17.05）×10^-6h和（0.15~31.69）×10^-6，分别在2018年和2016年达到峰值.苏南地区水稻生长期的AOT40高值分布较多，苏北地区近3年两种农作物生长期的AOT40都有明显增势.2013~2019年，冬小麦年相对产量损失为17.7%~31.0%，年绝对产量损失达（1.94~3.75）×10⁶t.年产量损失最高的地级市是盐城和徐州，损失最低的是南京和无锡.2013~2019年，水稻年相对产量损失为8.6%~15.6%，绝对产量损失为（3.03~6.04）×10⁶t.年产量损失最高的地级市是盐城和淮安，损失最低的是无锡和常州.江苏省每年由于臭氧污染导致的农作物产量损失约相当于5000多万人一年的粮食消费量，臭氧污染对粮食生产安全造成了较为严重的威胁，应当采取有效的政策和措施控制臭氧污染，保证粮食生产稳定.

Yield losses of rice and winter wheat due to ground~level ozone in Jiangsu Province from 2013 to 2019

Based on observed O₃ data from 115gound monitoring station, the annual crop yield of 97 counties, and AOT40-yield response functions, this study used spatial interpolation and evaluated the losses of rice and winter wheat caused by surface O₃ across Jiangsu Province during 2013~2019. Results suggested that from 2013 to 2019, AOT40values during growing seasons were (2.76~17.05)×10^-6h and(0.15~31.69)×10^-6h for winter wheat and rice. The trend of AOT40 in Jiangsu Province peaked in 2018 and 2016 for rice and winter wheat, respectively. More high AOT40 values were distributed in the south of Jiangsu Province. In the north of Jiangsu Province, AOT40 showed a significantly increasing trend during the growing season from 2017 to 2019. During 2013~2019, the yield losses of winter wheat were 17.7%~31.0%, amounting to 1.94~3.75million tons. The highest yield losses of winter wheat were in Yancheng and Xuzhou, and the lowest in Nanjing and Wuxi. The relative yield losses of rice were 8.6%~15.6%, amounting to 3.03~6.04million tons, with the highest in Yancheng and Huaian and the lowest in Wuxi and Changzhou. Annual yield losses of winter wheat and rice attributable to ozone pollution in Jiangsu Province equal to grain consumption of more than 50million population in one year. Therefore, the government shall take effective policies and measures to control O₃ pollution and hence guarantee food security.