甘肃省生态服务供需关系及影响因子研究

以甘肃省为例分析，采用分区域生态服务供需评价矩阵，在生态系统服务供需关系研究基础上，基于地理探测器从自然因素和社会经济因素两个方面研究了生态系统服务供需指数的影响，揭示了供需格局的时空变化规律.结果表明：在甘肃省中部和南部，生态系统供给与需求具有明显的空间分布错位，呈现出高供给-低需求和低供给-高需求的状态，供需服务高度不平衡区域主要集中在甘肃中部区域.甘肃省生态系统服务供给能力和供需指数之间权衡和协同关系并存，而生态系统服务需求强度和供需指数之间都为权衡关系.从地理探测结果看，年均降水量和植被类型对生态系统服务供给能力影响的解释力q值在50%以上，是导致空间分异的主要原因；而人口数量对生态系统服务需求强度影响的解释力最高，q值超过40%，对供需指数的影响中，社会经济因子中的人口数量和自然因子中的降水量解释力最高，q值超过35%.影响因子对生态系统服务供给能力（需求强度、供需指数）的影响是多种因子共同作用的结果，其影响均为非线性增强.

A study on the relationship between supply-demand relationship of ecosystem services and impact factors in Gansu Province

Natural factors and socio-economic development have a profound impact on the supply and demand of regional ecosystem services, leading to imbalance of regional ecological service supply and demand. This study aims to analyze the pattern of supply-demand of ecosystem services in Gansu Province, and to explore their internal relationship under social and economic development. In this study, the evaluation matrix of regional supply and demand of ecosystem services was used to calculate the supply and demand intensity. The supply-demand index was introduced to represent the matching status of ecosystem services. The impact of both natural and socio-economic factors on the supply-demand index of ecosystem service was studied by using geographical detector, revealing the spatiotemporal changing patterns of supply and demand. Our results show that:the spatial distribution of ecosystem supply-demand index is obviously inhomogeneous in Gansu Province, especially in the central and southern parts of Gansu Province, characterized by high supply-low demand and low supply-high demand, with the strongest mismatch observed in the central region of Gansu Province. Although this situation has been gradually mitigated since 2010, the discrepancy between supply and demand is still prominent in this region; From the perspective of trade-off and synergy of ecosystem services, there are many trade-offs between supply services, regulatory services and cultural services at the service supply side, while the synergy relationship is mainly found in regulatory services; on the service demand side, there is a synergy relationship between demand services and supply services, and the strongest synergy relationship is observed between supply services and other services. There is a trade-off relationship as well as a synergy relationship between the supply and demand indices of ecosystem services, whereas there is a trade-off relationship between demand and the supply-demand index of ecosystem service; The q value of annual precipitation and vegetation types is more than 50% on the impact of ecosystem services supply intensity, which is the main reason for the spatial differentiation. The population has the highest explanatory power on the demand intensity of ecosystem services, and the q value is more than 40%. In terms of the impact on the supply-demand index, the population in the socio-economic factors and the precipitation in the natural factors have the highest explanatory power, and the q value is more than 35%. The impact of factors on the supply capacity of ecosystem services (demand intensity, supply-demand index) is attributable to a variety of factors, and further enhanced nonlinearly.