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| 火灾时人员疏散预动作时间的CDF表征法研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 汪金辉,陆守香,黄昌兵.火灾时人员疏散预动作时间的CDF表征法研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2012,22(1):58-64. |
| 作者姓名： | 汪金辉 陆守香 黄昌兵 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 上海海事大学海洋环境与工程学院,上海,201306 2. 中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,安徽合肥,230026 3. 中国科学院心理研究所行为科学重点实验室,北京,100101 |
| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助(50909058);上海市晨光计划资助(10CG51) |
| 摘 要： | 为表征建筑物火灾环境下人员疏散预动作时间随机性,提出累积分布函数表征法,并给出根据已知累积分布曲线产生随机预动作时间的方法和步骤。对1993年发生在美国纽约2幢世贸中心双子大楼(WT1和WT2)的火灾案例进行分析。结果表明,前人提出的正态分布、威布尔分布等概率分布表征人员疏散预动作时间,具有一定的局限性,对WT1的数据比较适用,对于WT2数据完全失效。而应用累积分布函数法分别对WT1和WT2的数据进行表征,结果表明,模拟生成随机预动作时间的累积分布与原始数据的累积分布曲线完全吻合。同时,随机预动作时间的均值和标准差几乎与样本大小无关。 |
| 关 键 词： | 预动作时间 累积分布函数(CDF) 随机变量 人员疏散 火灾 |
Cumulative Distribution Function Method for the Characterization of Pre-evacuation Time under Building Fire |
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| WANG Jin-hui , LU Shou-xiang , HUANG Chang-bing.Cumulative Distribution Function Method for the Characterization of Pre-evacuation Time under Building Fire[J].China Safety Science Journal,2012,22(1):58-64. | |
| Authors: | WANG Jin-hui LU Shou-xiang HUANG Chang-bing |
| Institution: | 1 College of Ocean Environment and Engineering,Shanghai Maritime University, Shanghai 201306,China 2 State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei Anhui 230026,China 3 Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science, Institute of Psychology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China) |
| Abstract: | This paper first proposes a CDF approach to characterize the occupant’s pre-movement time under building fire,and details the procedures for generating stochastic pre-movement times based on a given CDF curve.Then a case is studied on the evacuation time of World Trade Center Twin Towers fire in 1993,it shows that,although the Normal distribution and Weibull distribution,as proposed in previous studies,can agreeably account for the evacuation time data from the Twin Tower 1,they failed terribly to explain the evacuation data from the Twin Tower 2.The CDF method,on the other hand,provides better accounts to both datasets without any pre-defined distributions.Meanwhile,the means and standard deviations of simulated pre-evacuation times are almost independent of the sample size. |
| Keywords: | pre-evacuation time cumulative distribution function(CDF) stochastic variable staff evacuation fire |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |