基于区域环境风险评价的产业布局规划优化研究

区域环境风险评价相比单个项目的评价具有信息相对缺乏、风险因素多,风险叠加难度大等特点.信息扩散法可有效应对评价信息不足问题,通过构建和运行风险信息矩阵实现对多个环境风险源的风险值叠加,并最终形成风险分区图以指导区域布局优化和风险管理.本研究结合广州南沙地区发展规划,应用信息扩散法对区域现有及规划风险源进行综合评估,并得出区域综合环境风险4级分区.评价结果显示,规划的石化基地布局不合理,将大幅增加区域环境风险等级,提出放弃该产业规划或重新选址,该建议得到最终决策的支持.建议区域开发在规划的初始阶段就考虑开展环境风险评价,以此论证区域功能划分和产业布局的环境合理性,实现优化区域开发和加强区域环境风险防控的目的.

Optimization of industrial layout planning based on regional environmental risk assessment

Compared with the environmental risk assessment (ERA) for single project, regional ERA is usually featured with limitations, such as information shortage, more risk factors and increased difficulty in synthesizing multiple risks arising from diversified sources. Among the existing methods for ERA, the information diffusion approach (IDA) is capable of addressing the problem of information shortage and fulfilling a synthesis of multiple risks at regional level by building up and running risk information matrices. The risk zoning map, as an output of ERA for regional planning, shall be used for guiding layout planning optimization and risk management. In this paper, IDA was applied in an ERA for regional development planning of the Nansha area of Guangzhou. A four-level classification was made for the synthesized environmental risks brought about by the existing and anticipated risk sources within the area. The result indicates that the planned petrochemical base might increase environmental risk level of the area to a large extent. Thus, it is recommended that the petrochemical base should be either removed out of the planning or relocated to a more environmentally suitable site. This recommendation has been accepted in the final planning of the Nansha area. In order to achieve environmental optimization of regional development and enhance regional environmental risk control, this paper suggests an early incorporation of ERA into the planning process by examining environmental rationality of regional function distribution and industrial layout.