综合安全评价(FSA)方法

为提高国际海运安全管理的决策水平,国际海事组织(IMO)接受并倡导由英国海运界提出的综合安全评价(FSA)方法,笔者对FSA方法作了本质性分析和应用性研究。阐述了FSA的由来,5个组成步骤及相互关系和流程,揭示了FSA与风险管理和安全系统工程的渊源;介绍了危险识别的7种工具;对步骤二“风险评估”重点引入了半定量分析方法和定量分析方法,并用集合论观点讨论了事故频率和后果严重度的计算方法;介绍了风险控制方案的“成本与效益评估”的数学模型;归纳了FSA方法的优缺点。指出FSA是一种集风险评价和成本/效益评估于一体,兼顾技术性与经济性,可广泛兼容具体评价方法和普遍适用各类风险评价的框架性方法,但具体应用需要有效整合适用的定性和定量方法。

Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) Methodology

In order to raise the level of decision-making in maritime safety management, International Maritime Organization (IMO) accepts and advocates the methodology of formal safety assessment (FSA) proposed by UK. The essential and applicability of FSA are studied. The origin of methodology, 5 component steps and their interrelation, and the flow of FSA are expounded. It reveals that FSA is originated from the risk management and safety system engineering. Seven tools of risk identification are introduced. Semi-quantitative and quantitative analyses are emphatically introduced in step two “risk assessment”, and the calculation procedures of accident frequency and severity of consequence are discussed with the set theory. The mathematical model of “cost benefit assessment” for risk control options is also introduced. The advantages and deficiencies of FSA methodology are summed up. It is pointed out that FSA methodology is a significant framework, which integrates the “risk assessment” and “cost benefit assessment”technically and economically, being capable of accommodating specific methods extensively and generally applicable structural method of various risk assessment. However, when putting FSA into practice, it is necessary to effectively integrate appropriate qualitative and quantitative method.