水电厂电力设备事故应急响应FPN-MC模型及效能分析

为更好地利用信息技术研究水电厂电力设备事故应急效能，提高应急救援效率和应急处置能力，综合考虑应急响应过程中各个环节时间的随机性与模糊性，运用模糊Petri网（FPN）和马尔科夫链（MC）理论，构建水电厂电力设备事故应急响应FPN-MC模型，求解模糊稳态概率值并分析系统效能指标。最后，以ZLB水电厂电力设备事故Ⅲ级应急响应作为实例，进一步剖析应急流程信息拥挤的瓶颈环节及事件应急处置的关键节点。结果表明:应急资源使用完毕、相关人员现场处置到位、确定完善的处置方案时的状态最为繁忙；利用资源实施救援、相关人员进行现场处置、完善处置方案等实施过程需要重点监督和管理。

FPN-MC model on emergency response of electrical equipment accident in hydro-power plant and its performance analysis

In order to make better use of information technology to study the emergency performance of electrical equipment accident in hydropower plant, and improve the emergency rescue efficiency and emergency disposal capacity, comprehensively considering the randomness and fuzziness of each link time in emergency response process, a FPN-MC model on emergency response of electrical equipment accident in hydropower plant was established by using the fuzzy Petri net (FPN) and Markov chain (MC) theory. The fuzzy steady probability was solved, and the indexes of system performance were analyzed. Finally, taking the level III emergency response of electrical equipment accident in ZLB hydropower plant as an example, the bottleneck links of emergency process informa-tion congestion and the key nodes of emergency disposal were further analyzed. The results showed that the states when the usage of emergency resource is finished, the on-site disposal of relevant personnel is in place, and the perfect disposal program is determined are the busiest. The implementation processes, such as implementing rescue by using the resource, conducting on-site disposal by the relevant personnel, and perfecting the disposal program etc., should be managed and supervised with emphasis.