事故致因模型体系及建模一般方法与发展趋势

为完善事故致因建模的基础理论体系，从微观、中观与宏观3个层面归纳国内外现有的50余种事故致因模型，并以“点-线-面-体”为主线论述事故致因模型的立体网状结构体系。基于此，从方法学的视角论述事故致因建模的理论基础，并提炼相似比较法、概率统计法等5种一般建模方法。最后分析新形势下事故致因模型及其建模方法的发展趋势。研究结果系统的梳理与归纳了现有事故致因模型及其结构体系，完善了事故致因建模的方法论，可为事故致因建模的研究与实践提供基础理论指导。

Study on system of accident-causing model and its general modeling methods and development trend

In order to improve the basic theory system of accident-causing modeling, more than fifty existing accident-causing models were generalized from three levels, which are micro-level, meso-level, and macro-level. Then, the stereoscopic network structure system of accident-causing model was analyzed with "point-line-area-body" as principal line. Based on this, the theoretical basis of accident-causing modeling was discussed from the perspective of methodology, and five general modeling methods were extracted, such as similarity-comparison method, probability-statistics method, etc. Finally, the development trend of accident-causing model and its modeling methods under new situation were analyzed. The results summarized the existing accident-causing models and its structural system systematically, improved the methodology of accident-causing modeling, which can provide basic theoretical guidance for the research and practice of accident-causing modeling.