基于突变级数法的离心泵机组安全评价模型

为研究层次分析法在安全评价中权重确定受主观因素影响较大的问题，提出将突变理论和模糊数学相结合的突变级数评价模型。模型考虑离心泵机组的结构、故障模式及人员管理等因素建立多层次评价指标体系，并结合模糊数学确定底层指标的隶属函数矩阵；利用突变级数法对各指标进行标准化和归一化处理；将底层指标隶属函数矩阵逐级量化递归得到总突变隶属矩阵。研究结果表明:此离心泵机组的最大总突变隶属函数值达到了0.961 9，即为“良好”。但同时也发现第一级与第二级相差不大，说明只要采取一定的安全措施，就可提高此离心泵的安全性。分析结果与实际情况相符合。

Safety evaluation model of centrifugal pump unit based on catastrophe progression method

In view of the problem that the weight determination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in the safety evaluation is influenced by the subjective factors significantly, a catastrophe progression evaluation model was proposed by combining the catastrophe theory with the fuzzy mathematics. The model established a multi-level evaluation index system by considering the factors such as the structure and fault mode of the centrifugal pump unit, the personnel management and other factors, and the membership function matrix of the bottom indexes was determined by combining with the fuzzy mathematics. The standardization and normalization processing of each index was carried out by using the catastrophe progression method, then the total catastrophe membership matrix was obtained by the quantification and recursion on the membership function matrix of the bottom indexes layer by layer. This method could quantify the index weight according to the intrinsic mechanism of normalized formula in the catastrophe theory, and reduce the influence of human subjective factors. In the case analysis, the evaluation result of a certain centrifugal pump unit was "good", which was consistent with the actual situation.