基于风险熵的化工园区事故风险突变模型研究

为准确判断化工园区事故风险演化进程，基于风险熵理论分析化工园区系统风险状态，从影响园区系统风险熵的不同因素出发，根据化工园区公共区域和企业端的各自特点建立风险熵指标；利用尖点突变理论，用矩阵表征多参数多时刻的风险熵增和熵减值，建立化工园区熵增、熵减计算模型；根据计算结果判断事故风险状态。将所提出的方法应用于某化工园区，结果表明:在该园区某危化品储存企业丁二烯泄漏情况下园区系统风险熵发生突变，由泄漏引发二次事故的风险骤升，需要采取相应安全措施。分析结果与实际情况相符合。

Study on accident risk catastrophe model of chemical industry park based on risk entropy

In order to judge the evolution process of accident risk in the chemical industry park accurately, the system risk status of chemical industry park was analyzed based on the theory of risk entropy. Starting from different factors affecting the system risk entropy, the risk entropy index was established according to the characteristics of the public area and enterprise terminals of the park. The risk entropy increasing and entropy decreasing values under multi-parameter and multi-time were represented by the matrix using the cusp catastrophe theory, and the calculation model of entropy increasing and entropy decreasing for the chemical industry park was established, then the risk accident status was judged according to the calculation results. The proposed method was applied in a certain chemical industry park, and the results showed that the system risk entropy of the park occurred the catastrophe in the case of butadiene leakage in a hazardous chemicals storage enterprise in the park, and the risk of secondary accidents triggered by the leakage rose sharply, so it was necessary to adopt the corresponding safety measures. This result was consistent with the actual situation.