Lake phosphorus dynamics and climate warming: A mechanistic model approach |
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| Institution: | 1. Taihu Lake Laboratory Ecosystem Research Station, State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China;2. Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Vejlsøvej 25, 8600 Silkeborg, Denmark;3. Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, 3431 Arendell Street, Morehead City, NC 28557, United States;4. College of Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;5. Sino-Danish Centre for Education and Research (SDC), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100049 Beijing, China;6. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;1. College of Resources and Environment, Yunnan Agricultural University, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, China;2. Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming 650201, China;3. State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resources Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China;4. World Agroforestry Center, ICRAF East & Central Asia, Kunming 650201, China;5. School of Ecology and Environmental Science, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China;6. Center for Resources, Environment and Food Security, China Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Plant-Soil Interactions, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100193, China;7. School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA |
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| Abstract: | Model results in this work indicate that lakes may respond very differently to climate change depending on their physical character. A physical lake model and a mechanistic phosphorus model are combined with two temperature scenarios generated by a regional climate model (RCM) in three sites in central Sweden—Lake Erken and two basins of Lake Mälaren (Galten and Ekoln). In the phosphorus model water mixing, mineralization, diffusion and biouptake are temperature dependent. In the simulations, Lake Erken is much more sensitive to climate warming than the two basins of Lake Mälaren, and the reason is shown to be the much longer water residence time in Lake Erken (7 years), stressing the importance of internal lake processes. In Galten and Ekoln the water residence times are less than 1 year, and the effects of water temperature changes are small. In Lake Erken the concentration of epilimnetic-dissolved phosphorus is almost doubled in spring and autumn in the warmest climate scenario. Since the lake is mostly phosphorus limited, this means that the potential for phytoplankton production is almost doubled. The implication would be that in Lake Erken, and in other eutrophic lakes with long water residence times, eutrophication problems may become serious in the future, and that managers may need to take action today in order to maintain good water quality in these lakes. |
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