基于D-S证据理论的地下洞室作业人员安全行为评价

为系统地评价地下洞室作业人员安全行为水平，综合运用集对分析和D-S证据理论，提出一种基于D-S证据理论的作业人员安全行为评价方法。首先，分析了影响作业人员安全行为的因素，构建包括作业人员安全素养、生理因素、心理因素、作业技术等4个一级指标及16个二级指标的综合评价指标体系，并将安全行为等级划分为4级；其次，采用集对分析处理二级指标的不确定性，产生基本信度分配函数（BPA）；然后，利用D-S证据理论，融合一级指标的BPA，产生最终安全等级隶属度；最后，结合最大隶属度原则和信任准则，确定地下洞室作业人员安全行为等级。以某水电站引水隧洞开挖工程为例，确定该工程中作业人员行为安全等级为z2级，即一般安全，符合工程实际。

Evaluation on safety behavior of workers in underground cavern based on D-S evidence theory

In order to systematically evaluate the safety behavior level of workers in underground cavern, an evaluation method on safety behavior of workers in underground cavern based on D-S evidence theory was put forward by comprehensively applying set pair analysis and D-S evidence theory. Firstly, the factors affecting the safety behavior of workers were analyzed, and a comprehensive evaluation index system was built, which included four first level indexes such as safety literacy, physiological factor, psychological factor, and working technology of workers and sixteen secondary level indexes, and the safety behavior was divided into four levels. Secondly, the uncertainty of secondary level indexes was processed by set pair analysis, and the basic probability assignment (BPA) function was produced. Thirdly, the BPA of first level indexes were integrated by using D-S evidence theory to produce the final safety level membership. Finally, combined with the maximum membership degree principle and trust guidelines, the safety behavior level of workers in underground cavern was determined. Taking an excavating engineering of diversion tunnel in a hydroelectric power station as example, the safety behavior level of workers in this engineering was determined to be z2 level, namely general safety, being in line with the engineering reality.