基于动态贝叶斯网络的民航突发事件情景分析研究

航空运输重大突发事件的应急准备与处置存在问题，应急救援效果不甚理想。建立了基于灾害体、受灾体、孕灾环境以及抗灾体四要素的突发事件情景分析模型，并运用动态贝叶斯网络模型，构建了基于关键时间节点的突发事件情景演化模型。基于上述模型，以某航班降落时起落架故障的典型事件为例进行模型构建与分析，分析结果验证该模型运用于民航突发事件情景分析与评估的合理性和可行性。该模型为提高民航突发事件应急准备与处置能力提供了新的思路与方法。

Study on scenario analysis of civil aviation emergency based on dynamic Bayesian network

In recent years, the emergency preparedness and response of major emergency in civil aviation have exposed many problems, and the effect of emergency rescue is unfavorable. A model of emergency scenario analysis based on four elements, including disaster body, disaster-bearing body, disaster-forming environment and anti-disaster body, was established, and the model of emergency scenario evolution based on key time nodes was constructed by using the dynamic Bayesian network model. Taking a typical event of landing gear fault in a flight as example, the construction and analysis of model were conducted. The results showed that the model is reasonable and feasible for the scenario analysis and evaluation of civil aviation emergency. The model provides new ideas and methods for the improvement of emergency preparedness and response capabilities on civil aviation emergency.