成都未来气候变化趋势的R/S分析

运用R/S分析法，对1951～2002年成都的平均值气温、极端气温值及降水累积值进行了计算分析。研究表明，成都未来气候变化趋势与过去50年来的变化趋势有着很好的自相似性。今后成都将继续变暖。依平均气候倾向率，未来10年，年平均气温将升高0.25°C，年平均最低气温将升高0.14 °C，年平均最高气温将升高0.04 °C，年极端最低气温将升高0.54 °C，年极端最高气温将升高0.13 °C。其中，年平均气温、年平均最低气温和年平均最高气温升高趋势的持续性强度很强。成都未来降水量将继续减少。未来10年的年降水量将减少45.2 mm，并且这种减少趋势具有很强的持续性强度。

R/S ANALYSIS ON FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CITY OF CHENGDU

Based on R/S analysis,the average temperature,average minimum temperature,average maximum temperature in winter (January),spring (April),summer (July),autumn (October) and the whole year,the extreme minimum temperature in winter (January) and the whole year,the extreme maximum temperature in summer (July) and the whole year,the precipitation summer semi year (the summation of monthly statistic of April to September),winter semi year (the summation of monthly statistic January to March and October to December) and their annual values from 1951~2002 in Chengdu were calculated.It was shown that the Hurst index of all parameters were beyond 0.5,indicating that they all had evident Hurst phenomena.The climate changes in Chengdu City had a persistence trend component.Firstly,the tendency and the relative long term feature expressed by five climatic factors,the annual average temperature in Chengdu city,average minimum temperature and so on,all indicated that the climate would be warmer in Chengdu city.According to climate tendency,the annual average temperature in Chengdu City would increase 025°C every ten years,the average minimum temperature would increase 014°C every ten years,the average maximum temperature 004°C every ten years,the average minimum temperature 054°C every ten years,and the average maximum temperature 013°C every ten years.The rise of annual average temperature,annual average minimum temperature and annual average maximum temperature showed an obvious pattern of rising.But the annual amount of precipitation in Chengdu city would decrease continuously.The annual amount of precipitation would decrease 4520 mm and in semi year would decrease 4124 mm every ten years.The decrease of the amount of precipitation was a consistent pattern.