淮河流域暴雨灾害时空分布及趋势规律研究

选用1958~2007年淮河流域16个地面测站50 a逐日降水观测资料，利用降水距平百分率和线性趋势法以及Morlet小波分析法，对淮河流域暴雨分布的时空规律和波动演化规律进行了研究。结果显示：（1）淮河流域暴雨日数呈现3个阶段，1958~1964年和1994~2007年为暴雨日数增长期，1965~1993年为暴雨日数减少期，且大多数年份正负距平约1~2 a交替出现，淮河流域暴雨日数在进入21世纪以来明显增加；（2）淮河流域6~8月份暴雨量偏多的年份有13次，从20世纪80年代开始洪涝也较为频繁，尤其2000年以后雨量明显增加；（3）Morlet小波的时频变化规律研究显示，淮河流域显示出一定的周期性时间序列，2、5、15、27 a是重要的周期性时序，淮河南北两部分表现出不同的暴雨发展趋势，淮河南部地区是暴雨中心地带，南强北弱的趋势日趋明显

SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF RAINSTORM DISASTERS IN THE HUAIHE RIVER BASIN AND LAWS OF THE TREND

Based on the daily precipitation data of the Huaihe River Basin ground stations during 1958~2007 for 50 years,the law of spatial-temporal distribution of the Huaihe River Basin rainfall and its fluctuations were studied by precipitation anomaly percentage and linear trend method and the Morlet wavelet analysis.The results indicated that rainstorm days of the Huaihe River Basin showed three stages.Two growth for the heavy rain days were during 1958~1964 and 1994~2007.The shortage of heavy rain days was during 1965~1993 with most of the year about the positive and negative anomalies 1 to 2 years alternately.Torrential rain days of the Huaihe River Basin in the 21st century significantly increased.There were 13 years in which the storm rainfall of June to August was on the high level in the Huaihe River Basin.From the 1980s,more frequent floods occurred,particularly after 2000,the rainfall increased significantly.Morlet wavelet time-frequency variation study indicated that the Huaihe River Basin showed some periodic time series,and 2,5,15,27 were the important cyclical timing.North part and south part of the Huaihe River showed different storm trends.South part of the Huaihe River was the center of the rainfall area,and the tendency of the south part being more rainfall and the north part being less rainfall was more and more intensified.