| 一种电离层短期预报的新方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯静,柳文,凡俊梅,孔庆颜.一种电离层短期预报的新方法[J].装备环境工程,2009,6(3):15-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯静 柳文 凡俊梅 孔庆颜 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国电波传播研究所,电波环境特性及模化技术国家重点实验室,山东,青岛,266107 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出了一种电离层短期预报的新方法。该方法基于自相关方法，继承了其简单易实现的优点，但在精度上有了较大提高。利用满洲里、乌鲁木齐、北京和海口电离层观测台站的f0F2数据给出了该方法预报精度的定量估计。该方法对于提前1～Nh的预报（冬季、分季N=1h，夏季N=3h）与自相关方法具有相同的精度，但提前Nh以上预报时则有明显的改善，尤其在冬季，均方根相对误差往往可以降低2个百分点左右。
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| 关 键 词： | 电离层 短期预报 相似日 foF2 |
A New Method for Short-term Ionospheric Forecast |
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| FENG Jing,LIU Wen,FAN Jun-mei,KONG Qing-yan.A New Method for Short-term Ionospheric Forecast[J].Equipment Environmental Engineering,2009,6(3):15-20. |
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| Authors: | FENG Jing LIU Wen FAN Jun-mei KONG Qing-yan |
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| Institution: | (National Key Laboratory of Electromagnetic Environment, China Research Institute of Radiowave Propagation, Qingdao 266107, China) |
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| Abstract: | A new method for short-term ionospheric forecast was put forward. The method which is based on the autocorrelation analysis not only inherits the advantages of simpleness and facility, but also improves the forecasting accuracy. A test of the similar day method for 1-24h forecast of Manzhouli, Beijing, Wulumuqi, and Haikou during the periods of the high （1980） and low （1985） level solar activities and a comparison with the autocorrelation coefficient segmented forcast method showed that the method is practical. The method improves the result obviously for more than hours forecast（ for winter and equinoxes, for summer）, and especially in winter, the relative error can be usually reduced by 2 percent. |
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| Keywords: | foF2 |
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