中国的冰雪灾害及其发展趋势

中国每年都有不同程度的冰雪灾害发生，冰雪灾害成为中国西部和北部经济发展的一个制约因素。最近１００～１５０年内，气候变暖将显著地减少冰冻圈的区域范围与数量，这种减少对有关的生态系统和社会经济活动将产生明显的影响。山地冰川的冰雪丧失和退缩将是惊人的。小冰川分布地区，如祁连山、阿尔泰山等，随着预料的变暖在未来１００年内将大部分消失；但喀喇昆仑山、帕米尔、天山以及喜马拉雅山等的那些大冰川将持续存在到２２世纪。冰川阻寒湖溃决洪水规模将日益变小。随着气候变化，冰雪融水径流将发生明显变化。随着气候变暖，季节性积雪的范围、积雪期和厚度将减少，从整体说，季节性积雪灾害（如雪崩、风吹雪）将变轻。海冰的范围和厚度将发生巨大变化，不仅是由于气候变暖，而且由于大气和大洋两者的环流形式发生变化，我们预期：黄海和渤海的海冰和北方地区河冰将显著减少，因此，河冰、海冰灾害亦将变轻。

THE SNOW AND ICE DISASTERS AND ITS TENDENCY IN FUTURE ON CHINA

The snow and ice disasters of different degrees may take place in every year and have become an important factor restricting the economical development in the western and northern parts of China.Climatic warming during the last 100-150 years will substantially reduce the areal estent and volume of the cryosphere.This reduction will have significant impacts on related ecosystems and on social and economic activities.This paper arrives at the following conclusions:1.Mass loss and retreat of mountainf glacicrs will be striking.The distribution of little glaciers,for example Qilian mountain,Altay mountain and etc may disappear with anticipated warming over the next 100 years.However the largest alpine glaciers such as those found in Karakorum,Pamir,Tian mountain and a few in Himalayas would continue to exist up to the 22th century .So the harm done us by GLOF (Jokulhlaup)will be mild by degrees.There will bd pronounced alterations to glacier and snow runoff as the climate change.2.Seasonal snow cover will be diminished in estent,duration and depth by the climatic warming.As a whole,the disasters of seasonal snow cover(for example snow avalanche and blowing snow)will be reducde.3.Large change in extent and thickness of sea ice may occur,not only from warnimg but also from changes in circulation patterns of both atmosphere and oceans.It is predicted that sea ice in the Huanghai Sea and Bohai Sea Will be substantially less.Therefore,the disaster of sea ice will be reducing.