近二千年中国重大气象灾害气候变化背景初步分析

以不同分辨率建立了近二千年和近五百年中国重大气象灾害频率分布曲线。得出近二千年我国重大气象灾害频率分布，在１１世纪前低处于低发时期，１１～１２世纪灾害迅速增加，以后通过两峰两谷于１９世纪进入灾害群发时期。近五百年，１７世纪和１９世纪中叶后为两个灾害群发时期。上述灾害群发时期都发生在数百年气候变化暖的背景下的暖期和冷的背景下的冷期。另外在气候转折时期，我国重大气象灾害也群发。根据上述关系，估计现今至２０３０～２０５０年，具有灾害群的气候变化背景，我国重大气象灾害将群发，特别是洪涝与风暴潮增加，同时由于人类活动加剧，水资源开发力度加大，对于大面积干旱也不可忽视。

PRELIMINARY RESEARCH ON CLIMATIC CHANGE AS BACKGROUND OF HEAVY METEOROLOGICAL DISASTER IN CHINA DURING LAST 2000 YEARS

Heavy meteorological disaster frequency curves of China during last 2000 and 500 year have been established by two kinds of resolution.It shows that in alst 2000 years,before 11th century the heavy meteorological disasters were less,the disasters increased rapidly from 11th to 12th century,then disasters became very frequent after two cycles during 19th century.There were two periods of frequent disasters in 17th century and after middle of 19th century in last 500 years.The above frequent disasters periods just hqppened in warm period on warm bacdground,cold period on cold bacdground and in abrupt climatic change.It is estimated from above that berfore 2030-2050 A.D.there are background of frequent disaster especially flood and storm surge.In addition,attention should be paid to wide range of drought due to increased human activties and exhausted water resource.