若尔盖近55年热量资源分析

利用1957～2011 年若尔盖气象观测站的逐日气温资料，分析了该地区日平均气温稳定通过0℃的初日、终日、持续日数、活动积温的年际变化, 对活动积温进行突变检验。研究表明：若尔盖≥0℃的初日提前的趋势并不明显；终日呈显著延后趋势；持续日数呈明显增加趋势。活动积温变化呈十分显著的增加趋势，1997年为积温增加的突变年，1998～2011年是热量和持续日数增加幅度最大的时期。1998～2011年若尔盖≥0℃的各不同保证率对应的持续日数均大于1957～1997年对应的持续日数，即初日提前，终日推迟，活动积温也明显增加

ANALYSIS OF THERMAL RESOURCE IN ZOIGE DURING THE LAST 55 YEARS

By using the observation data from meteorological stations in Zoige from 1957 to 2011, the changes of the initial date, final date, continuous days and the accumulated temperature above 0 ℃ in different years were analyzed. The accumulated temperature mutation test was analyzed. It was found that the initial date of the accumulated temperature above 0℃ was not obviously earlier, it’s final date was obviously later and it’s continuous days showed increasing trend. There was a very obvious ascending trend for the variation of annual accumulated temperature above 0℃ in Zoige from 1957 to 2011. In 1997 the annual accumulated temperature had abrupt change. The ascending trends of annual accumulated temperature above 0℃ and continuous days were most significant form1998 to 2011. Under the each accumulated frequency, continuous days above 0℃ from 1998 to 2011 were higher than that from 1957 to1997, that was, the initial date was advanced and the final date was postponed, and the accumulated temperature above 0℃ from 1998 to 2011 was higher than that from 1957 to1997.〖HJ1〗〖HJ〗