从政府与农户的动态博弈分析退耕还林工程的可持续性

退耕还林工程的实施取得了一定的成绩，但是也存在一些问题，制约了工程的可持续性。其中一个重要的原因就是补偿问题。通过经济学中的博弈理论构建退耕还林动态模型，从补偿的角度分析了退耕还林工程中存在的问题，并提出工程可持续性建议，即：①对生态林和经济林实行差别补偿；②对不同地区实行差别补偿标准；③延长补偿期限，实行分年度对农户进行不同数量的补偿；④对工程区进行产业结构调整，加强农户技能培训。

Study on Sustainable Development of Changing Farmland into Forestry by Dynamic Game Mode

After five years implementation,many outputs were acquired by project of changing farmland into forestry.But there are some things which restrict the sustainable development of project.The main reason is compensatory problem. This paper uses game theory to set up dynamic mode and from compensatory point of view to analyze sustainable development of project of changing farmland into forestry.Some suggestions on sustainable development of changing farmland into forest are given: develop different compensation standard according to economicforest and eco-forest;use different compensation standard according to different areas;extend compensatory period and pay different amount of compensation on stage;adjust industry structure in project areas,and more skill trainings should be held to farmer.