Towards the definition of budget models for the evolution of deltas

Global climatic change is likely to take place and could eventually affect Mediterranean deltas and other lowlying coastal regions. This would have serious implications for the natural resources of these deltaic areas, as well as for human settlements and related economic activities. To achieve sound decision making, to prevent damages and to avoid risky investments, it is necessary to understand the integral functioning of deltaic areas and to determine their vulnerability and response to large-scale change phenomena. Optimal use of the available knowledge will require that existing and new field measurements are combined and that integrated (physical/ecological) conceptual models of deltaic behaviour are developed with socio-economics scenarios as boundary conditions. This paper illustrates the methodological effort towards organizing a modeling framework to conduct budget computations at various scales with reference to the most significant ‘physiogrpahic units’ and to the most significant deltaic processes. The final objective is to handle the problem of evaluating possible changes under different scenarios.