A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought |
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Authors: | Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Alexander Carius Frank Eierdanz Richard Klein Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler |
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Institution: | (1) Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany;(2) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany;(3) Adelphi Research, Berlin, Germany;(4) Present address: Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain, Belgium;(5) Present address: Faculty of Psychology, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany;(6) Present address: Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden |
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Abstract: | In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political
science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding
of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive
assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions
incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators
by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the
regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case
study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases
the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary
models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated
water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper
provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance
of the differences.
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Keywords: | Climate impacts Drought Environmental crisis Environmental security Security diagram Susceptibility Vulnerability Water stress |
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