广东省CO2排放变化的社会经济影响因素

作为我国经济最为发达的省份之一，广东省社会经济可持续发展面临CO₂排放量增长的挑战.从多角度分析广东省CO₂排放变化的社会经济影响因素，有助于其实现低碳发展.基于投入产出模型，从生产、需求和供应角度分析1987—2015年广东省CO₂排放量的变化；此外，采用结构分解分析方法，从需求和供应角度量化广东省各种社会经济因素对CO₂排放变化的相对贡献.结果表明:①与生产端相比，需求侧和供给侧的研究有助于识别不同的关键行业，如建筑业（需求侧）、金融和保险业（供给侧）.②降低碳排放强度是减少广东省CO₂排放的主要因素，而人均最终需求水平和人均初始投入增加是推动广东省CO₂排放增加的主要因素.③生产结构、最终需求结构和初始投入结构变化导致CO₂排放量略有增加，表明广东省具有较大的通过调整结构性因素减排CO₂的潜力.综上，建议除了生产端CO₂减排措施外，广东省还应采取需求侧和供给侧相关措施，如优化消费行为、产品分配行为和初始投入结构等. 

Socioeconomic Factors Influencing CO2 Emissions in Guangdong Province

As one of the most developed provinces in China, the sustainable economic and social development of Guangdong Province is facing the challenge of increasing CO₂ emissions. Analyzing the socioeconomic factors of CO₂ emission changes from multiple perspectives is conducive to the low-carbon development in Guangdong Province. Based on the input-output analysis, this study investigates the evolution of CO₂ emissions from the perspectives of production, demand, and supply during 1987-2015. We also quantify the relative contribution of socioeconomic factors to CO₂ emissions during this period from the perspectives of demand and supply using structural decomposition analysis. The results show that: (1) Compared with the production-side results, the demand-side and supply-side results can identify new critical sectors that lead to CO₂ emissions (e.g., the construction sector for demand-side results and the finance and insurance sector for supply-side results). (2) The decrease in CO₂ emission intensity is the major factor mitigating CO₂ emissions, while the per capita final demand and per capita primary inputs are the dominate factors for CO₂ emission increase in Guangdong Province during 1987-2015. (3) Changes in the production structure, final demand structure and primary input structure lead to slight increase in CO₂ emissions, indicating there is great potentials for future CO₂ mitigation by optimizing the structural factors in Guangdong Province. In summary, in addition to CO₂ reduction measures on the production side, Guangdong should also pay attention to demand-side and supply-side measures such as optimizing product consumption, product allocation, and primary inputs.