中国城镇居民食物消费碳排放的时空演变特征分析

本文运用碳折算系数法和投入产出模型测算了1990—2018年中国30个省(区、市)城镇居民食物消费的人均直接碳排放、人均家庭间接碳排放和人均产业间接碳排放,并运用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)对总碳排放的空间特征进行分析。研究表明:1990—2018年中国30个省(区、市)人均间接碳排放在研究期内呈增长趋势,人均产业碳排放增长幅度最大且始终处于主导地位,大部分地区的人均直接碳排放增长较为缓慢;人均碳排放和总碳排放都呈显著增长趋势,人均碳排放的增长幅度宁夏>新疆>上海>浙江>青海>北京,甘肃最小,总碳排放增长幅度广东>浙江>山东>江苏>河北>上海,吉林最低;总碳排放在大部分年份呈正的空间相关性,整体上呈"M"形波动;局部空间自相关分析结果表明,食物消费总碳排放存在高高型和低高型两种,且2000年及以后高高型稳定在上海、江苏、浙江地区。最后,本文依据实证结果对如何降低城镇居民食物消费碳排放提出了相应的政策建议。

Spatio-Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Carbon Emissions from Food Consumption of Urban Residents in China

The carbon conversion coefficient method and input-output model were applied to measure the per capita direct, household indirect and industrial indirect carbon emissions of urban residents'' food consumption in 30 provinces (districts and cities) in China from 1990 to 2018. The spatial characteristics of total carbon emissions was studied by Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA). The result showed that the per capita indirect carbon emissions had an increasing trend, the per capita industrial carbon emissions growth rate was the largest and always in the dominant position, the per capita direct carbon emissions growth was relatively slow in most regions in 30 provinces(districts and cities) in China from 1990 to 2018. The per capita carbon emissions and total carbon emissions showed a significant growth trend. The growth rate of per capita carbon emissions was Ningxia>Xinjiang>Shanghai>Zhejiang>Qinghai>Beijing, which was the smallest in Gansu. The growth rate of total carbon emissions was Guangdong>Zhejiang>Shandong>Jiangsu>Hebei>Shanghai, and Jilin was the lowest. Total carbon emissions showed a positive spatial correlation in most years, which fluctuated in an "M" shape. The results of local Moran''I showed that there were high type and low high type of total carbon emissions in food consumption. The high type was stable in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang in 2000 and after years. Based on the empirical results, the corresponding policy suggestions about how to reduce the carbon emission of urban residents'' food consumption were put forward in this paper.