非重点行业炉窑典型大气污染物“十四五”减排潜力研究

工业炉窑是大气污染物的重要排放源之一，针对除钢铁、水泥、焦化、石化等行业外的非重点行业炉窑，研究二氧化硫、氮氧化物、颗粒物的排放量及其在2025年的削减潜力，以期对“十四五”时期炉窑污染治理提出建议.非重点行业炉窑具有行业和区域分布广、底数不清、治理水平差、对环境质量影响大等特点，基于第二次全国污染源普查结果，二氧化硫、氮氧化物、颗粒物排放量分别占工业源排放总量的34.0%、21.2%、9.9%.研究充分考虑“十四五”经济社会发展特征和生态环境保护需要，建立了淘汰小型燃煤炉窑、清洁能源替代、提高末端治理设施去除率等减排方案，设定了两种减排情景（其中，情景1为小型燃煤炉窑淘汰+部分燃煤炉窑实施煤改气+治理效率提高至炉窑平均去除率，情景2为小型燃煤炉窑淘汰+部分燃煤炉窑实施煤改气+治理效率提高至工业源平均去除率），估算了2025年不同情景下非重点行业炉窑二氧化硫、氮氧化物、颗粒物的削减潜力及其排放量.结果表明:维持2017年管控水平下，2025年二氧化硫、氮氧化物、颗粒物排放量较2017年分别增加42.32%、40.11%、45.82%；情景1下，2025年二氧化硫、氮氧化物、颗粒物排放量分别较2017年减少0.84%、增加20.86%、减少71.49%；情景2下，2025年二氧化硫、氮氧化物、颗粒物排放量分别较2017年减少63.30%、16.67%、68.51%.根据情景分析结果，结合典型大气污染物“十四五”减排策略，明确了增设末端治理设施的行业，以及开展小型燃煤炉窑清理整顿和清洁能源替代的区域等. 

Analysis of the Typical Air Pollutants Emission Reduction Potential of Non-Key Industries Furnaces in the '14th Five-Year Plan'

Industrial furnace is one of the important emission sources of air pollution. In order to put forward some suggestions on the pollution control of furnaces during the '14th Five-Year Plan' period, this paper studies the emission of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter from non-key industrial furnaces and the emission reduction potential in 2025. Non-key industries refer to industries other than iron and steel, cement, coking, petrochemical industries. Their furnaces have the characteristics of wide distribution, unclear emissions, poor treatment levels and great influence on environmental quality. Based on the results of the second national pollution source census, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter emissions from non-key industries accounted for 34.0%, 21.2% and 9.9% of the total industrial source emissions, respectively. Taking full account of the economic and social development characteristics and ecological environmental protection needs of the '14th Five-Year Plan', the emission reduction projects including eliminating small coal-fired furnaces, replacing clean energy and improving end-of-pipe treatment are established, and two scenarios are developed. The first one is to eliminate small coal-fired furnaces, replace partial coal-fired furnaces with clean energy, and improve the removal rate of furnaces to the average level of all industrial furnaces. And the second one is to eliminate small coal-fired furnaces, replace partial coal-fired furnaces with clean energy, improve the removal rate of furnaces to the average level of all industrial end-of-pipe treatment facilities. The reduction potential and emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter in non-key industrial furnaces under different scenarios in 2025 are estimated. The results show that the emission of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter will increase by 42.32%, 40.11% and 45.82% respectively in 2025 compared with 2017 while maintaining current levels of control. Under the first reduction scenario, the emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter will be decreased by 0.84%, 20.86% and 71.49% respectively in 2025 compared with 2017. Under the second reduction scenario, the emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter will be decreased by 63.30%, 16.67% and 68.51% respectively compared with 2017. Based on the results of scenario analysis, combined with the emission reduction strategy for typical air pollutants during the '14th Five-Year Plan', the industries where the end treatment facilities should be added, and the areas where small coal-fired furnaces should be cleaned and replaced with clean energy are clarified.