| 基于多种预测模型的玉米低温冷害预测集成模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 李祎君,王春乙.基于多种预测模型的玉米低温冷害预测集成模型[J].灾害学,2006,21(4):1-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李祎君 王春乙 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部农业科技成果转化基金;国家科技攻关计划 |
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| 摘 要： | 引入大气环流特征量因子、500hPa高度场因子、太平洋海温因子以及预报量本身的均值周期因子等四类因子的低温冷害预测子模型来建立玉米低温冷害预测集成模型。利用该集成模型预报下一年温度等级时，将上一年的实况资料输入预测模型，滚动预测，克服了统计模型预报时效短的缺点，且试报准确性高，无错报。
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| 关 键 词： | 低温冷害预测模型 大气环流因子 高度场因子 海温因子 均值周期因子 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-811X（2006）04-0001-07 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-04-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年4月27日 |
An Integrated Maize Chilling Damage Forecast ModelBased on the Multi-Prediction Model |
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| LI Yi-jun,WANG Chun-yi.An Integrated Maize Chilling Damage Forecast ModelBased on the Multi-Prediction Model[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2006,21(4):1-7. |
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| Authors: | LI Yi-jun WANG Chun-yi |
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| Institution: | Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences , Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | The integrated maize chilling damage forecast model is established by considering influence of four factors,such as atmospheric circulation factor,high field factor at 500hpa,sea surface temperature factor and mean value factor of independence.When the integrated model is used to predict the degree of next year's temperature,the actual data of the previous year are input into the prediction model.Rolling prediction overcomes the shortcomings as short effective period of time of forecast by statistic model.It has a high accuracy and no misprediction. |
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| Keywords: | chilling damage forecast model atmospheric circulation factor high field factor at 500h pa sea surface temperature factor mean value of independence factor |
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