台风灾害的模糊风险评估模型

台风灾害的致灾因子具有多重性，这使得台风灾害的风险评估相对于其它灾害来说更加复杂。本文以广东省14个市辖区为例，分别从台风暴雨和台风大风的角度分析了台风致灾因子的时、空、强规律；结合进行研究区承灾体的易损性分析，即选择研究区人口密度、人均GDP和农业占GDP的比重等3个指标综合反映研究区台风灾害的潜在损失风险。在此基础上，本文进一步评估了研究区台风灾害所造成的风险水平的地区差异。结果表明，阳江、深圳、汕尾、珠海、湛江是广东省14个市辖区中受台风灾害影响风险最高的5个区域。

Fuzzy risk assessment model of typhoon hazard

Typhoon has multiple factors that can make disaster, so the risk assessment of typhoon is more difficult than other hazards. This paper selects 14 cities in Guangdong Province as target regions with analyzing the temporal,spatial and intensity character in typhoon rainstorm and typhoon gale respectively. Incorporating the vulnerability analysis of target area, the density of people, average GDP and proportion of agriculture in GDP are chosen to reflect the potential loss risk of typhoon in target areas synthetically. On the basis of these,works, this paper assesses the regional difference of risk level in the target regions. From the result,it can be known that the highest risk areas of the 14 cities in Guangdong Province wih threat of typhoon hazard are Yangjiang, Shenzhen, Shanwei, Zhuhai, and Zhanjiang.