The Operational Forecasting Of Undesirable Pollution Levels Based On A Combined Pollution Index

Several air pollution indexes have been developed for control action and public information. The majority of these are based upon some combination of SO₂ and particulate matter levels, since epidemiological studies indicate a relationship between severity of health effects and these constituents. The present paper describes the application of one such index, in conjunction with synoptic meteorological forecasting, to an operational program for forecasting pollution potential in the Sarnia, Ontario, petrochemical complex. The program was developed in conjunction with the Lambton Industrial Society. This system has operated for over 5 years with approximately a 70% accuracy of predicting adverse situations. The performance of this program indicates that meteorological forecasts can be used successfully to provide major sources with the advance information necessary to effect any additional control measures relevant to their individual operations.