A Preliminary Study of Particulate Emissions from Small Wood Stoves

This paper summarizes the methodology developed to analyze alternative oxidant control strategies of the 1979 Air Quality Plan for the San Francisco Bay Area. The analysis of alternative oxidant control strategies is a complex task, particularly when a grid-based photochemical model is the primary analysis tool. To handle quantitatively spatial and temporal variations in emissions under both existing and projected future conditions, as well as to simulate the effects of a wide variety of control strategies, a system of computer-based models was assembled. The models projected and distributed a number of variables in space and time: population, employment, housing, land use, transportation, emissions, and air quality. Given time and budget constraints, an approach to maximizing the information return from a limited number of model runs was developed. The system was applied in three sequences to determine (1) what future air quality would be if no further controls were implemented, (2) the degree of hydrocarbon and NO_x emission control necessary to attain the oxidant standard, and (3) the effectiveness of alternative stationary source, mobile source, transportation and land use control strategies in contributing to attainment and maintenance of the oxidant standard.

A number of significant modeling assumptions had to be developed in order properly to interpret the modeled results in the context of the oxidant standard. In particular, a Larsen-type analysis was used to relate modeled atmospheric conditions to “worst case” conditions, and a proportional assumption was made to compensate model results for an imperfect validation. The specification of initial and boundary conditions for future year simulations was found to be a problem in need of further research.