重庆市温室气体排放系统动力学研究

在全球气候变暖和快速城市化的背景下,开展城市温室气体减排研究十分迫切。重庆作为中国五大中心城市之一和西部唯一的直辖市,其协调经济发展和节能减排的实现模式对广大西部地区具有重要示范意义。本研究从社会经济发展的内部结构出发,以经济和人口增长导致的能源消费为核心,构建重庆市温室气体排放的系统动力学模型。研究中考虑不同投资率下的高、中、低三种经济发展模式,并在此基础上设置节能和低碳情景,探求节能水平提高、能源结构改善和碳汇能力增强对未来重庆温室气体排放的影响。模拟结果表明,产业能耗水平降低即节能情景,是重庆市温室气体减排的主要途径,对保证2020年中国单位GDP二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%-45%目标的实现具有一定借鉴意义。最后本文在产业结构、能源消费、碳汇增加等方面针对重庆未来低碳经济发展提出对策建议。

System Dynamics of Greenhouse Gases Emission in Chongqing City

Urban greenhouse gases(GHG) emission is a hot topic in the context of global warming and rapid urbanization.Chongqing City,the only western municipality in China,sets an important example in coordinating economic development and energy saving for the western areas within China.The paper established a system dynamics model about GHG emission on the basis of inner social-economic structure,and energy consumption resulting from population and economic growth.In order to explore the influence on GHG emission of the increasing energy saving level,energy structure and carbon sink,three types of economic developing patterns were set,based on which the paper established energy saving and low-carbon scenarios.The results indicated that decreasing of industrial energy consumption was the principal pathway in controlling greenhouse gasses emission.Meanwhile,it was also instructive for China to achieve the goal of 2020 with 40%-45% reduction compared to 2005.Finally,the low-carbon development strategies were provided for Chongqing City in optimizing industrial structure,energy consumption and carbon sink capacity.