贵阳市环境经济系统协调发展策略分析

环境与经济的协调发展已成为未来城市发展的必然要求，在西部大开发战略实施的当前形势下，如何实现贵阳市环境—经济系统协调发展是当地拟研究的一个重要问题。阐述了贵阳市环境经济系统的特征，在引入和结合系统动力学、情景分析和协调度分析三种方法的基础上，提出了贵阳市协调发展策略分析的研究框架。遵循框架中的思路和方法，构建了贵阳市环境经济系统仿真模拟模型，围绕GDP增长、资源消耗、环境污染、环保设施建设方面进行了5个情景的情景预测和协调度分析，通过反复模拟、反馈、调整及分析，识别出情景5为较理想的一种发展模式，总结提出了相应的基本策略方向。研究结果是贵阳市未来发展的科学参考和决策支持。

STRATEGY FOR THE ENVIRONMENTALLY COORDINATED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN GUIYANG CITY, CHINA

The coordinated development of Guiyang City has aroused much concern especially with the implementation of the national Western Zone Development Strategy.In this paper,characteristics of the environmental-economic system for Guiyang city were analyzed.Four kinds of basic characteristics covering economy,population,technology and environment were presented.Then,a framework for the coordinated development strategy is proposed,in which methods of system dynamics(SD) model,scenario analysis and coordinated degree analysis are integrated.With its guidance,a SD model was built for Guiyang City.Five scenarios were also identified,considering the driving factors such as gross domestic product(GDP),resource,pollution and environmental protection facility.Accordingly,under these scenarios,prediction and coordinated degree analysis were conducted.Resting on repeated processes of simulation,feed-back,adjustment and analysis,the fifth scenario was consequently identified as the optimum development mode.Corresponding principal strategies were then proposed,providing scientific base for decision-making during the coordinated development in Guiyang city.