废气排放量灰色建模新法初探

在研究和指出灰色建模常规方法理论缺陷的基础上，结合某化工厂废气排放预测实践，初步探讨和提出了将原始动态数据序列经过线性或指数变换，采用黄金分割法选取背景值的直接建模方法。初步研究表明，该方法较灰色建模常规方法在改善序列随机性、提高预测精度等方面，具有较明显的优越性和合理性，拓宽了GM(1，1)模型在环境科学领域中的应用范围。 

Preliminary Investigation of Innovative Grey Model-Establishing Method on Exhaust Gases Amount

Based on the research work on the theoretical shortcomings of regular grey model-establishing method,combined with the forecast practice of gas exhaustion of a certain chemical plant,adirect model-establishing method is investigated and demonstrated.The method is formulated by using golden selection method to select background value after the linear or index alternation of originaldynamic data array. It is shown that,compared with regular grey modelestablishing method,thesuggested method possesses much more obvious superiority and rationality on the aspects of improvingthe randomness of the data array and the forecast precision. Moreover,this method helps to widenthe application of the GM(1,1)Model in environmental sciences.