Conceptual Models as Hypotheses in Monitoring Urban Landscapes |
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Authors: | Todd R Lookingbill Robert H Gardner Philip A Townsend Shawn L Carter |
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Institution: | (1) Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, 301 Braddock Road, Frostburg, Maryland 21532, USA;(2) National Capital Region, National Park Service, 4598 MacArthur Boulevard NW, Washington, DC 20007, USA;(3) Department of Forest Ecology and Management, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA |
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Abstract: | Many problems and challenges of ecosystem management currently are driven by the rapid pace and spatial extent of landscape
change. Parks and reserves within areas of high human population density are especially challenged to meet the recreational
needs of local populations and to preserve valued environmental resources. The complex problem of managing multiple objectives
and multiple resources requires an enormous quantity of information, and conceptual models have been proposed as tools for
organizing and interpreting this information. Academics generally prefer a bottom-up approach to model construction that emphasizes
ecologic theory and process, whereas managers often use a top-down approach that takes advantage of existing information to
address more pragmatic objectives. The authors propose a formal process for developing, applying, and testing conceptual models
to be used in landscape monitoring that reconciles these seemingly opposing perspectives. The four-step process embraces the
role of hypothesis testing in the development of models and evaluation of their utility. An example application of the process
to a network of national parks in and around Washington, DC illustrates the ability of the approach to systematically identify
monitoring data that would both advance ecologic theory and inform management decisions. |
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Keywords: | Conceptual ecologic models Model evaluation National Capital Region Network Stressor-response Urban ecology Vital signs monitoring |
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