环鄱阳湖区生态足迹与经济产业发展关系的实证研究

生态足迹是衡量区域生态承载力状况的一个较成熟的方法。首先通过计量模型计量出环鄱阳湖区1989~2008年生态足迹的时间序列值，并评价了其承载状况。结果显示，近20 a来，环鄱阳湖区的生态足迹从1989年的1 401万hm2提升到2008年的3 145万hm2，呈波动上升趋势；生态承载力从1989年的6 255万hm2上升至2008年的7 215万hm2，基本上呈不断上升的变化趋势。环鄱阳湖区生态承载力能满足区域的生态足迹需求，表现出生态盈余，但其盈余空间从1989年的4 220万hm2降低至2008年的4 069万hm2，总体上呈减少趋势。其次，将生态足迹与区域的经济总量和三次产业进行协整分析后得出，生态足迹的GDP弹性为035，其三次产业的弹性分别为0668 3、0011、0049 4。最后，从加强土地管理、强化区域贸易、改变消费方式、完善产业体系等角度提出了协调环鄱阳湖区生态环境与经济产业发展的政策措施

FOOTPRINT AND ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE POYANG LAKE

Ecological footprint(EF) is a traditional and mature approach to measure ecological carrying capacity.This paper first calculated out time series values of EF during 1989~2008 through the econometric model,and then evaluated their own load conditions.The conclusion showed that the EF value in the area around the Poyang Lake rose from 14.01 million hectares in 1989 to 31.45 million hectares in 2008,presenting a wavelike rising tendency in the past two decades,and the ecological carrying capacity value rose from 62.55 million hectares in 1989 to 72.15 million hectares in 2008,presenting a rising tendency in the past two decades.The ecological carrying capacity could meet the needs of EF and showed ecological surplus,while the surplus space decreased from 42.2 million hectares in 1989 to 40.69 million hectares in 2008.Then,we made a co-integration test analysis between EF and the economic industry.The conclusion showed the GDP elasticity of EF was 0.35,and the three industrial elasticity of EF were 0.6683,0.011,0.0494.Finally,we delivered several suggestions for coordination development between the ecological environment and economic-industrial development from the aspects of land management,trade exchange,consumption model,and industrial system.