航海人员的不安全行为分析与评价模型研究

随着国际、国内对航运系统安全认识的不断提高,航海人员的行为及如何对其安全行为进行科学评价日益受到关注。从人—机—环—管的安全系统基本要素出发,全面分析导致航海人员不安全行为的各种因素。在此基础上提出综合评价航海人员安全行为的指标体系,并探讨以各指标实测值经归一化处理后作为系统的输入,以评价结果作为系统的输出,应用BP神经网络建立综合评价模型。该种评价模型简单、实用,而且克服了其他评价方法中存在的人为和随机干扰,同时也为航海人员的安全行为评价提供了一种新的研究思路。

Analysis on Unsafe Behavior of Seafarers and Study on Evaluation Model

As the importance of safety in shipping system is more and more recognized, behavior of seafarers and how to scientifically evaluate their safe behavior become much more prominent. From the point of basic elements of man-machine-environment-management system, factors attributing to unsafe behavior of seafarers are analyzed in detail,on the basis of which the evaluation index system for safe behavior of seafarers is put forward. The measured values of indexes are taken as system input after normalization, and evaluated results as the system output. A comprehensive evaluation model is established by BP neural network. This model is practical with simple structure and provides a new way to evaluate the safe behavior of seafarers.