中国2000~2010年生态足迹变化特征及影响因素

以2000年全球平均生产力为衡量标准,核算了2000~2010年我国生态足迹,并分析了其动态变化特征和社会经济影响因素. 结果表明,2000~2010年我国生态足迹由17.69亿gha增加到32.59亿gha,年均增长6.30%; 碳足迹是10年间增长最快的生态足迹类型,由7.42亿gha增加到18.05gha,年均增长9.29%; 耕地足迹的净增幅也较大,由6.78亿gha增加到8.91亿gha; 林地、 草地、 渔业和建设用地足迹的净增幅相对较小. 2000~2010年我国人均生态足迹由1.40 gha增加到2.43gha,尽管仍低于世界平均水平,但已远超我国人均生态承载力,并造成严重的生态赤字,危及我国生态安全. 全国生态足迹的急剧增加主要受人均生态足迹的快速增长驱动,而经济增长和城镇化所带来的人均消费的产品和服务的快速增长是我国人均生态足迹快速增长的主要驱动力; 同时,国际贸易中资源密集型产品的大量出口也是驱动我国生态足迹快速增长的重要驱动因素. 如果不采取有效的控制措施,按照发达国家人均生态足迹的演变规律,随着我国由中等收入向高收入国家迈进,人均生态足迹将进一步快速增长,我国生态赤字将进一步加剧.

Ecological Footprint Evolution Characteristics and Its Influencing Factors in China from 2000 to 2010

According to global average land productivities in 2000, this study calculated ecological footprint (EF) in China from 2000 to 2010, and analyzed its dynamic characteristics and socio-economic driving forces. The results showed that the total EF in China increased from 1.769 to 3.259 billion global hectares (gha) from 2000 to 2010, and its annual growth rate was 6.30%. Carbon Footprint was the fastest growth type of EF. It increased from 0.742 to 1.805 billion gha, and its annual growth rate was 9.29%. The net increase of cropland Footprint was also large in comparison to other types of Footprint. It increased from 0.678 to 0.891 billion gha. Per capita EF in China increased from 1.40 to 2.43 gha in this period. Although it was still below the world average level, it was far beyond per capita ecological carrying capacity in China, which led to serious ecological deficit and severe ecological crisis in China. The fast growth of per capita EF was the main driving force for the growth of total EF in China during the study period. Further, the growth of per capita EF was positively influenced by the growth of per capita consumption of products and severs, which was driven by economic growth and urbanization. Meanwhile, a large amount of exports of resource-intensive products in international trade was also an important driving force for EF growth. According to the evolution route of per capita EF in developed countries, along with China moving from middle-income to high-income country, per capita EF will maintain rapid growth, and ecological deficit in China will further exacerbate.