| 20世纪长江的3次巨洪 |
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| 引用本文： | 冯利华,陈立人. 20世纪长江的3次巨洪[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2001, 10(1): 8-11 |
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| 作者姓名： | 冯利华 陈立人 |
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| 作者单位： | 浙江师范大学地理系, |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省教委科研基金资助项目(951085) |
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| 摘 要： | 分析了形成20世纪长江3次巨洪的3个遥相关因子：（1）太阳黑子活动；（2）厄尔尼诺事件，（3）青藏高原南部大震。依据长江巨洪和遥相关因子的基本事实，讨论了长江发生巨洪的统计规律。指出当3个因子的出现时间互相重叠时，长江很可能发生巨洪，这对长江巨洪的超长期预测具有重要的指导作用。
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| 关 键 词： | 太阳黑子活动 厄尔尼诺事件 青藏高原南部大震 遥相关因子 长江洪水 长期预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-457(2001)01-0008-04 |
Three large floods along the Yangtze River in the 20th century |
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| Feng Li-hua,CHEN Li-ren. Three large floods along the Yangtze River in the 20th century[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2001, 10(1): 8-11 |
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| Authors: | Feng Li-hua CHEN Li-ren |
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| Abstract: | Three far correlation factors resulting in three large floods along the Yangtze River in the 20th century are analyzed as follws: (1) sunspot activity, (2) EL Nino event, (3) drastic earthquake in the south of the Tibet Plateau. According to the basic facts between the large flood along the Yangtze River and the far correlation factor, the statistical law of the large flood along the Yangtze River is discussed. It is pointed out that when the arising times of three factors reduplicate, the large flood will probably arise along the Yangtze River, which is of important indication function for the over long-term forecast of the large flood along the Yangtze River. |
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| Keywords: | sunspot activity EL Nino event drastic earthquake in the south of Tibet Plateau large flood along the Yangtze River |
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