危险化学品事故多米诺效应历史数据研究评述

系统整理分析近十五年来国内外利用历史数据进行危险化学品事故多米诺效应研究的相关文献，介绍该领域研究的主要数据来源、主要研究方法，对主要研究内容进行交叉比对，整理挖掘包括危险化学品多米诺事故场景下的易发物质、高发区域/过程、主要事故致因、高频事故序列、致死概率5项事故内在规律并对规律的运用进行初步探讨。提出在后续研究中可以从改进采样时间区间设计和进行细分事故场景研究作为该领域的完善方向。

Review on historical analysis of domino effect in chemical accidents

A series of literatures for historical analysis of domino effect in the recent fifteen years were reviewed systematically. Firstly, the sources of the history data used and the main research methods in in articles were introduced. Then the main research contents in different articles were cross-checked, and then, some laws of general character of domino effect in chemical accidents were emphasized, including the most frequent hazardous materials involved, the most critical areas & operations, the main cause and the most common accident sequences. In addition, the application of the above laws were discussed basically. Finally, two improving direction were proposed, including perfecting the design of sampling time interval and subdividing the accident scenario.