Influence factors for scenario analysis for new environmental technologies – the case for biopolymer technology |
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| Authors: | Florentine Schwark |
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| Institution: | 1. Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, 1/AF Bidhannager, Kolkata, India;2. Physical Chemistry Department, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India;1. FoRC, Food Research Center, Chemical Engineering Department, Polytechnic School, University of São Paulo, USP, Brazil;2. GP2, Group of Pollution Prevention, Chemical Engineering Department, Polytechnic School, University of São Paulo, USP, Brazil;1. John B. Goddard School of Business & Economics, Weber State University, 1337 Edvalson St, Dept 3802, Ogden, UT 84408-3802, USA;2. Hamburg University of Technology, Institute of Business Logistics and General Management, Am Schwarzenberg-Campus 4, 21073 Hamburg, Germany |
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| Abstract: | New environmental technologies pose significant uncertainties because a clear prediction of their future development and application possibilities cannot be made. In order to include different future prospects in ‘firms’ and ‘policy-makers’ planning processes, scenario analysis constitutes a very suitable method. The characterization of important influence factors is central for informative results of an analysis as they define the nature and intensity of impacts of a technology's environment. This paper aims at specifying a classification of influence factors for new technology scenario analysis by including major insights from diffusion theory. Subsequently, an exemplary application for biopolymer technology is given. |
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