中国2030年能源发展预测与对策研究

在回顾2000年-2010年中国能源消费的基础上,对中国2030年能源发展及耗煤量进行了预测,预测结果表明,2030年中国能耗总量将控制在55～60亿t标煤,耗煤量控制在40～45亿t标煤。建议中国2011年-2015年、2015年-2020年、2020年-2025年和2025年-2030年能源弹性系数分别为0.5、0.5、0.4和0.3。开展煤炭休养生息战略,多进口煤炭。

Prediction of energy development in 2030 year in China and its countermeasure

The energy development and coal consumption in China in 2030 year are predocated based on the review of energy consumption during 2000 -2010 year in China. It indicates the total energy consumption in China in 2030 year should be controlled at 5 and half billion tons standard coal to 6 billion tons standard coal,the coal consumption amount should be controlled between 4 billion tons standard coal to 4 and half million tons standard coal. It suggests,during the period of 2011 year to 2015 year,2015 year to 2020 year,2020 year to 2025 year and 2025 year -2030 year,the energy elasticity coefficient should be controlled at 0.5,0.5,0.4 and 0.3 respectively in China,and development coal recuperate strategy at the same time.