基于系统动力学的建筑施工安全系统脆弱性仿真分析

为系统分析建筑施工安全系统脆弱性的影响机理,首先探讨了社会技术系统理论下各子系统影响因素之间的高接触与紧耦合性的特点;然后以脆弱性理论为切入点,建立了建筑施工安全系统脆弱性的系统动力学仿真模型,采用三角模糊数和层次分析法确定了模型中各影响因素的权重系数和相关方程参数;最后通过考虑不同子系统的投入方案对建筑施工安全系统脆弱性的暴露度、敏感度和适应度的影响程度进行仿真分析。结果表明:建筑施工安全系统具有脆弱倾向性;个人子系统、技术子系统和组织管理子系统分别对降低安全系统暴露度、敏感度和提高安全系统适应度有显著的作用,在整个仿真周期内各子系统每单位投入产生的变化幅度分别为17.07%、11.13%和15.60%,并围绕起关键作用的子系统提出了针对性建议,以期降低建筑施工安全系统的脆弱性风险,提高工程安全管理水平。

Simulation Study on Vulnerability of Construction Safety System Based on System Dynamics

In order to systematically analyze the impact mechanism of the vulnerability of the construction safety system,this paper first discusses the characteristics of high contact and tight coupling between the various subsystem factors under the socio-technical system theory.Secondly,taking the vulnerability as the starting point,the paper establishes the system dynamics simulation model of building construction safety vulnerability.The paper adopts triangular fuzzy number and analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight coefficients of the influencing factors in the model,and establishes correlation equation.Finally,the paper applies simulation analysis to analyzing the impact of safety vulnerability including exposure,sensitivity,and fitness by considering input schemes for different subsystems.The results show that the construction safety system is vulnerable;the individual subsystem,the technical subsystem and the organizational management subsystem have significant effects on reducing the safety system exposure,sensitivity and improving the safety system fitness respectively,and the variation range of each unit of input is 17.07%,11.13%and 15.60%,respectively.In order to reduce the vulnerability risk of construction safety system and improve the level of project safety management,the paper also puts forward some pertinent suggestions concerning the key subsystems.